In December 2015, 195 countries at the UN Climate Change Conference signed the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change. The treaty’s overarching goal was to keep the “temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”
While unquestionably meant well, the agreement has quickly turned into little more than a footnote as global warming has stormed ahead. Scientists have long warned that we’re on a path to blaze past that foreboding threshold in a matter of years, possibly by 2030.
And now, according to the latest projections, that day is poised to come even sooner. In a new article in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science, two researchers from the University of Kansas claim that a recent doubling in the rate of global warming means that we could blow past the Paris Agreement threshold as soon as 2028.
The researchers analyzed temperature records through last year and observed a “statistically significant doubling of the global warming rate” between 2011 and 2025, compared to the period between 1971 and 2025.
