Earlier this year, a major scandal rocked the prediction markets world after an account correctly bet $20,000 on an imminent attack on Venezuelan soil. Just hours later, US president Donald Trump issued orders authorizing the military strike, an invasion that saw Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro get kidnapped by US soldiers.
Rampant insider trading has long plagued platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Even tragic events like devastating wildfires and deadly conflict are game, with insiders getting caught capitalizing on nonpublic information to gain an edge over an unsuspecting public — and leaving them to hold the bag. Case in point, a US Special Forces soldier was charged by the Department of Justice for committing “commodities fraud” and “making an unlawful monetary transaction” after betting on the Venezuela invasion on Polymarket.
Now, a mysterious bettor on Polymarket has staked around $409,000 on Russian president Vladimir Putin leaving office by the end of this year, once again drawing attention to the topic.
As NBC News reports, the account is called “ZnotluvuiSamez,” and features the Ukrainian flag as its profile picture. The account made multiple big bets surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian war, including $409,000 on a contract that asks if “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?“
