Numerous scandals this year have sparked a public inquiry into government and military insider trading on prediction markets. In some cases, arrests have been made.
But a new investigation by the nonprofit research group Anti-Corruption Data Collective suggests the corruption may be even more rampant than we thought. Reuters reports that the analysis found that more than 150 wallets on Polymarket may have traded on inside US military information — with experts fearing that the practice could be compromising military secrets.
Polymarket didn’t respond to Reuters‘ requests for comment.
In the analysis, the ACDC focused on “long-shot” bets, which it defines as wagers of at least $2,500 at odds at 35 percent or less, guaranteeing an outsized payout if successful. After analyzing all settled markets through May 5, it found 566 wallets that it’s dubbed “orcas,” which is a reference to the selective and intentional hunting techniques of killer whales. These so-called “orcas” typically placed a lucrative long-shot bet on a freshly made account, before cashing out and disappearing.
